Being restricted, not able to travel has its benefits, you gain more time to climb into your own reading, research or passions. For me, this has been my “Energy Transition” year.

The sheer amount of articles, reports or webinars around all aspects of energy have been partly overwhelming but significant in their reference and knowledge gaining. This intensity of purpose towards the energy transition has given me an enormous boost in its understanding.

When I reflect back on this 2020 year, recognising the needs to make a significant energy change has really gained a very high awareness.

2020 advanced the commitment to the shift from fossil fuel to renewables that has real momentum in the coming years. 2021 will be the breakthrough year where the energy transition has the unstoppable forces happening.

Let me summarize my top six energy developments that built-in 2020 that have given a potentially lasting momentum to the energy transition that will, in my opinion, have a real impact in 2021. Plus my seventh one, a personal one, boosted my energy understanding and confirmed a growing recognition by others’ of my contributions.

Firstly, let’s look at my top six energy enablers to significantly impact the energy transition that is being undertaken. Each will have a massive impact on 2021.

ONE – We are entering the autumn of fossil-fuel generation

Coal, Oil and Gas are really on the ropes, fighting to stay relevant against the onslaught of renewables. Coal is on its way out that is for sure, the early retirements of dozens of coal plants in 2020.

Global coal consumption was such way down due to Covid-19 and renewables’ pace. Growing positioning has become far more competitive and offers real confirmation that renewables can bridge much of the energy demand.

Gas is not so far behind. The scrapping of plans to replace coal with gas and opt for clear energy portfolios and cancelled previously planned pipelines are among the issues that are putting huge pressure on the Gas Turbine business.

Power generation will be the major battlefield in 2021 to see if the “interim” argument, the bridge, takes hold or the longer-term one, of going straight for renewables wins.

The issue of a legacy for investing in Gas Turbines that have a life of thirty years or more of normally useful lifetime returns is at risk. They could quickly become stranded assets or wrongly positions in the new energy designed a system where renewables are more central.

I feel early retirement debates and required decisions to not invest in fossil fuel generation will dominate 2021. Fossil fuel-fired generation is heading for a very tough year in 2021.

TWO – The commitment to Carbon Neutrality

The commitments of both China and now the incoming US administrations recommitting to the Paris Agreement is highly significant. The whole raft of more vigorous policies, support programs and regulatory measures to tackle the CO2 emissions and the increased “drumbeat” to decarbonization will become much louder in 2021. Governments really need to “drive” change.

The continued push to carbon-free electricity is happening at an increasing rate, with the application and acceleration of clean energy technologies, and the power grids to manage and run increasingly on zero-carbon power. The energy system is being argumented with increased sector coupling management, and increase storage alternatives will be one of the top investment focus in 2021. Decarbonizing is central to all we do.

THREE.- The Race towards Hydrogen at Scale requires lower cost points.

For me, hydrogen became the big talking point of 2020. We have been deluged with Hydrogen opinions, suggested options and so much advice on how and when this “hydrogen economy” emerges into one that gives real commercial scale. Hydrogen is moving towards the alternative energy source to solve the harder-to-abate areas, bridge the wind and solar variability, and provide transport fuel alternatives in power-to-x solutions.

Green hydrogen is the place to get to, as quickly as possible. What needs to be announced in 2021 is significant breakthroughs in electrolyzer technology that can significantly upscale volume and show the promise of rapid cost reduction. The scaling trajectory will have a similar pathway that solar and wind took to get to the point where they are today where costs are required to fall dramatically to gain acceptance and adoption.

The disruptive technology breakthroughs for green hydrogen need to be delivered in 2021 to kick-start the Hydrogen revolution.

In 2021 the Hydrogen Council has to make some hard decisions. Does it continue to back all Hydrogen shades (grey, blue, green) or shape its memberships focus to one and only one Hydrogen choice, that of Green hydrogen?  Green Hydrogen is generated by the different renewables and technology solutions available; mostly solar, hydro, and wind feeding into electrolyzers.

Investment decisions and technology clarity need to be fully determined on Hydrogen Those decision and clear pathways for Hydrogen need to be nailed down in 2021. 

FOUR – The focus will shift further to reducing Greenhouse Gases in 2021

The transport industry, aviation, and shipping need to make definite inroads to find their fuel alternatives in 2021. There are options, but a winner or two needs to emergy and the industries consolidate behind these.

Methane Gas has to be given much sharper attention too, and that continues to push the oil and gas industries into getting their emissions in real shape. All greenhouse emissions in building, in industry, in transport need to be “forced” to act by Government edict and have clear time commitments to make the necessary changes to clean energy.

Bans on Gas Vehicles needs even more legislation incentive, the two or so decades needs shortening, so the laggards in the car industry finally get the incentive to commit.

2021 will see Gas Emissions becoming central to policy and which technological breakthroughs being determined as the ones to put the investment capital behind.

The one really grey area for me is translating all the talk of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) into real compelling and globally commercial solutions. If they can’t see the shift to decarbonization through renewables and green hydrogen, all the political, technological, and industry solution providers combined weight behind them to provide commercially viable CCUS solutions with blue hydrogen takes increasing hold on future energy designs. CCUS needs to have clear, scalable and proven solutions.

FIVE – Getting our Storage, Battery and Grids capable of delivering Electricity Stability

As we recognize the largescale deployment of energy storage, this has the real potential of overturning any business as usual for any electricity market needs. If it is to satisfy instantaneous demand, smooth out discrepancies between generation and loads, provide flexibility in load shifting and position both batteries and storage as the ancillary service for managing all the present and future options in power generation and consumption self-consumption.

As batteries and storage costs continue to fall and the amount of energy these can store will shift the economics of power across the grid,  displacing and disrupting plants and grids in their design, flexibility, and capabilities. Storage will upend many industry structures.

Storage system design will take a more central role, where lithium-ion, ölead-acid, flow-cells and other emerging technologies will optimise value to the needs on hand. Storage is recognized as giving two critical aspects of any energy transition, resilience and insurance to manage stability and fluctuations.

Energy storage and battery hold a critical part of the future, and 2021 will see these energy-storage systems become broader solution sets, not one-off positioning. They will become an integrated design feature, and this will emerge in 2021.

SIX– The Financial Energy Commitment Year of 2021 needs to be substantial

Financial institutions and Banks are finally making their move. Banks always want risk certainty, and they have really struggled over the investments at scale in emerging technology or alternative fuel solutions. The pretence (no other word for this, in my opinion) of their deep commitment to the energy transition has been lacking.

Banks and Financial Institutions should be “called out” and recognize their pivotal role in ‘forcing’ reducing carbon intensity as primary investors. They need to move with greater intent and purpose away from fossil fuel-related investments to renewable ones and resolve to back pioneering technologies in greater ways.

The boom of investment return needs to be seen, where Government Economic policy sends that powerful signal to the markets to commit in deeper, sustaining ways. We need to get past piecemeal or pilot projects to assess risk over a protracted time, we need bolder investment visions in investments in clean energy solutions.

Banks need to reorganize their portfolio of energy investments in radically different ways. Taking carbon intensity reduction as the core investment focus does begin to regroup individual segments in a new way of evaluation. 2021

Banks and Financial Institutions in 2021 need to finally come off the fence of backing both fossil fuel and renewables and make this reduced carbon intensity central to their investment decisions going forward.

SEVEN – My seventh one is my own deliverables in 2020 that I believe will build-out and lead to a significant “return” in 2021 for all who want to engage.

This reflection of my 2020 will be in my opening post of 2021, entitled “restating my energy purpose”.

My best of Energy Wishes to you in 2021. Let’s search for synergies and making connections that are mutual and rewarding.

The post Energy Progress- the best of 2020 leads to a great 2021. first appeared on Innovating the Energy Transition.

image credit alamy.com via IEEE Innovation at Work

Within the energy transition, we must not lose sight of the final consumer. We have to focus on the broader aspects of “energy transition” by re-engineering much of the existing infrastructure to create smart grids, provide storage, solar for individual homes, and the ability to introduce e-mobility across the transport sector.

These are the connecting points to the end-user. They “feel” the value of the energy transition in benefit; in energy security, increased choices and greater involvement in handling their own energy costs and local energy design choices, they see the “effect of change”.

A very critical piece of the energy transition puzzle is the necessary focus on the end-user sectors of how we work, live, and be connected to the need for energy change. It is the transport, industry, and buildings that are for the vast majority of us as the places where we “interact” with that make energy transitions real.

We want to see what different energy alternatives can really provide, otherwise “energy transitions” seem to be simply occurring elsewhere.

Any transition is a “hard sell” Here, for energy, it is the combination of new system designs and ways to operate, combined with technological innovation. 

We need to achieve the most pressing need to undertake greater energy efficiency and effectiveness at the consumption end of energy. It is not just replacing energy sources; it is all about solution renewal end-to-end

The nature of the energy landscape will require the transformation of businesses, the push to find and develop new market dynamics and embrace government policy and regulations in an orderly and planned way.

This “transformational mix” gives rise to different innovation dimensions to explore, be these enabling technologies, new business models, different market designs, and changes in the methods of system operation that make up a broader innovation ecosystem of solutions.

The increased electrification of these end-user sectors of transport, buildings, and industry are providing new designs for energy systems to operate can give increased reliability, lower costs, and greater efficiency.

The solutions offered are placing increased emphasis on digitalization so that the system design is managed on a  more decentralized and democratized participation and that enables better control and management of our costs, choices, and uses.

These energy choices are beginning to break up previous monopolistic providers in power generation. Passing the choices of energy design closer to the end-user has the exciting prospect that allows us as energy users, to potentially participate in the energy market, in choice of energy supply and a growing opportunity to sell off excess energy if we are self-generating our energy.

The changes are transforming energy management as the end-user is potentially becoming very engaged in the whole transformation of their energy.

The end-user market of transport, buildings, and the industry is predicted to be making a shift of their primary energy supply from the present 15% of renewable energy to 65% by 2050. The share of Renewable power is expected to rise to 85% by 2050 (source: Irena 2018 “Global energy transformation report”) and that adds the recognition that our energy is being sourced by sustainable and clean energy means.

The design of energy systems needs to bring closer to the end-user the utilization of mini-grids to enable greater flexibility and participation in energy co-operation between transmission and distribution system operators.

These designs are building the two-way flow where excess energy can be delivered back to the grid. You as a provider of energy, start seeing the benefits of reduced bills and even earning some cash from your energy contributions.

Innovation can accelerate progress, especially at the user-end point.

The role of innovation to translate the end-user need into reality within these sectors of transport, buildings, and industry will involve changes in system designs to digitalize grid services, build more local and grid-scale energy storage, deploy significant charging solutions for electric vehicles.

Access to clean energy needs to be as transparent and energy availability on-demand, reliable, and abundant to our needs as we can design and build it.

These innovations needed are galvanizing change, they are the catalysts of any change. Energy becomes one of increasingly managing the lifecycle design and transition, innovating end-to-end so energy is constant, affordable, and always available.

We need a robust design, connecting us as individuals as well as seeing ourselves within a community of being part of the end-user market for the energy transition In my opinion;  that comes partly from telling the emerging innovating story for energy solutions in exciting and effective ways based on offering clear roadmaps of energy design.

The post Connecting the Energy Story to the Final User first appeared on Innovating the Energy Transition.

Adapted Image: IRENA

We are at the point where “the rubber hits the road” or in Green Hydrogen’s case “the water needs to turn into H2 at scale and real value” and for that to happen it needs a massive commitment across so much that is work-in-progress today.

So much of where we are in Hydrogen is more of a promise theory or intent, than a reality. We need to moderate our rhetoric and provide realism before we completely overhype the green hydrogen. Impatience and growing frustration might kill off the hydrogen solution (again).

We need to massively be able to scale out solutions like the electrolyzer. We need to radically bring down existing production costs through different technology applications and design. We have to build a dedicated infrastructure and create real sustaining market demand. Today producing hydrogen means possible energy losses on the alternative.

We need to build the business case of Hydrogens value as the alternative to fossil fuel is a task-driven by the necessary policy change, customers willing to buy and replace their existing energy systems and suppliers able to offer the guarantees that any hydrogen replacement can work in demanding, more flexible conditions and offer affordability, sustainability, is effective and efficient beyond the existing solutions.

Oh, yes, to cap this all off it has to be at competitive prices to today’s energy sources. Or alternative solutions will need to be found, such as Nuclear perhaps.  I mean not much of a challenge to switch away from fossil fuels is it?Lets state the intent: the energy transformation requires a major shift in electricity generation from fossil fuels to renewable sources like solar and wind, greater energy efficiency and the widespread electrification of energy uses from cars to heating and cooling in buildings.

Not all sectors or industries can easily make the switch from fossil fuels to electricity. Hard-to-electrify (and therefore hard-to-abate) sectors include steel, cement, chemicals, long-haul road transport, maritime shipping and aviation all need imaginative and cost-effective alternatives to the existing solutions.

In a recent report “Green Hydrogen, a guide to policymaking” released by IRENA this month you are hit by a real dose of present reality.

Green hydrogen can provide that vital link between extending and sustaining renewable electricity generation (VRE) and provide solutions to those hard-to-electrify sectors.

We know Hydrogen is, without doubt, a suitable energy carrier and also for applications remote from electricity grid dependency. Also, Hydrogen can provide a high energy density, it can serve as a feedstock for chemical reactions and is well-positioned to produce a range of synthetic fuels and feedstocks to complete much of the energy transition.

Yet the barriers we face today are formidable to realize Hydrogen’s promise, picking up on the part of this report from IRENA.

Green hydrogen is regarded as the ultimate goal, but it needs to overcome the following barriers.

1. Green hydrogen has high production costs, and adopting green hydrogen technologies is presently expensive. To offer hydrogen vehicles with fuel cells and hydrogen tanks costs at least 1.5 to 2 times more than the fossil fuel counterparts at least. Synthetic fuels for aviation are presently eight times more expensive. Transport costs are equally at an economic disadvantage.
2. There is a lack of dedicated infrastructure. We only have 5,000 KM of hydrogen transmission pipelines compared to 3 million km for natural gas. There are presently only about 470 refuelling stations. We still are debating how and where to position our hydrogen sources and can it economically and safely can be transported.
3.  The energy losses are significant. About 30-35% of the energy used to produce hydrogen through electrolysis is lost (IRENA). To convert hydrogen to other carriers such as ammonia can result in 13-25% energy loss and transporting hydrogen requires additional energy inputs, estimated at 10-12% of the hydrogen itself. Using hydrogen in fuel cells can lead to additional 40-50% energy losses. Then you have the higher the energy losses, the more renewable electricity capacity will be needed. Can wind and solar satisfy both the global supply chain of electrification and simultaneously build a green hydrogen economy to solve the harder-to-abate challenges, for example?
4. Today Hydrogen has a lack of Value Recognition. We have no green hydrogen market, no green steel industry, no green shipping fuels and still according to IRENA, basically no valuation of the lower GHG emissions that green hydrogen can deliver. Hydrogen today is not counted in official energy statistics of total final energy consumption. There are no internationally recognized ways of differentiating grey, blue or green hydrogen. We lack clear targets or incentives to promote the use of green hydrogen. We are totally inhibiting many downstream uses of green hydrogen.
5. The critical need to ensure sustainability. Knowing an electric grid is only connected to renewables gives us the chance of green hydrogen. If fossil fuels are within the mix, any associated CO2 will need to be factored in when considering what hydrogen is being produced. The reality is fossil fuels will be in the hydrogen mix for some time to come and does this become a barrier, a taxing question and national emission debates. How can we ensure that grid-connected electrolyzer does deliver hydrogen with, at least, minimum emissions? Is this the case for the pursuit of green and blue hydrogen solutions setting out to capture all of the majority of the CO2

Realizing the true potential of green hydrogen is a long, dedicated journey, it needs to have a plan that is coordinated. Delivering green hydrogen needs international collaboration, it needs aligning standards, and it needs clear financing infrastructure to be staged along its “greening” journey.

Expectations for Hydrogen to significantly contribute to the Energy Transition are 5 to 10 years away. It is how we put the time between now and then will make or break Hydrogen as the viable, perhaps only sensible solution. Yet we must be realistic, grounded and highly focused on the significant challenges to be overcome.

We do need to face reality, dampen down the present hype around hydrogen and roll up our collective sleeves to tackle a highly complex set of challenges, we do need this dose of reality.

The post A Massive Dose of Hydrogen Reality first appeared on Innovating the Energy Transition.