Making the energy transition unstoppable needs massive commitments of political, public, private, and societal determination.

Innovation will be at the core of all the changes we will be making in the energy transition, be they for the current interim goals of 2030 or the ultimate one of2050, in achieving a transformation to a future where we are getting towards net-zero global Co2 emissions by this mid-century

Here lies part of the problem today to believe we might achieve these net-zero targets our planet so desperately needs to achieve. Much of the solutions required have either not been invented, scaled, or even commercialized, so are we naive or realistic in 2030?

The reality is we have a chance by 2050, but the momentum of unstoppable change has to be in place by 2030; otherwise, to coin a phrase, “we are cooked.”

Any innovation, any transition needs to balance our urgent need to reverse the rapidly increasing temperatures with providing solutions that provide transformations that gives us new hope for the future-

To quote IRENA in a recent report of theirs.

“Energy transformation will drive economic transformation,” continued La Camera. “Energy transition is a daunting task but can bring unprecedented new possibilities to revitalise economies and lift people out of poverty.”

IRENA’s Outlook brings unique value as it also outlines the policy frameworks and financing structures necessary to advance a just and inclusive transition. Each country will define what is best for them. Still, collectively, we must ensure that all countries and regions can realise the benefits of the global energy transition for a resilient and more equitable world. We have the know-how, we have the tools, we need to act, and do so now.”

The return from undergoing the energy transition

To quote IRENA, by 2050, a total of USD 33 trillion of additional investment are required into efficiency, renewables, end-use electrification, power grids, flexibility, hydrogen and innovations. The benefits, however, greatly exceed the costs of investments.

When air pollution, human health and climate change externalities are factored in, the payback is even higher with every dollar spent on the energy transition adding benefits valued at between USD 2 and USD 5.5, in cumulative terms between USD 61 trillion and USD 164 trillion by the mid-century.

Innovation is core to the following big problems to resolve.

• We will need significant technology breakthroughs to resolve the present no cost-effective alternatives to move away from conventional energy technology. There are ideas, working prototypes or pilots, but converting the iron and steel, chemical or cement, or finding alternative sources for ammonia, ethylene, or other essential feedstocks, are significant challenges.
• The same is to provide aviation and maritime fuel solutions that overcome existing barriers and provide a global alternative. Tailoring to local solutions might be doable, same as short flights or regional shipping, but the fuel needed to be dense and highly efficient where distance is required.
• Then we need to look beyond existing energy solutions in storage, batteries, and electrolyzers, for example, to be of higher capacity and able to replace the existing solutions commercially. Solutions that, as they scale, become lower in cost and offer solutions that stimulate deployment
• There is a recognition and a call for new business models, but what happens to the incumbent, the vested interest, and the provision of “risk capital” to make these changes?  Can new actors break into traditional areas of energy across the energy system? Can renewable technologies achieve not just profitable scale-up but replace whole energy supply systems?
• Today our financing is built on traditional risk/return models. Still, these need to be very differently modelled, those invested rewarded and reflecting the shareholder returns required, be these public or private.
• These reviews for change go through sometimes very long due process. Then we have so many policy and regulatory guidances that are often caught in a real-time lag and a range of multiple stakeholder dilemmas issues to be addressed. How can that be altered to provide greater market access and growth incentives based on exploring and establishing alternatives?

So, in conclusion, at this point.  The reality is we are only just starting on the energy transition journey. This is a runners race. The whole energy journey is a marathon, made up of short technology sprints, middle distance commitments, and cross-country involvement.

We need technology invention and acceleration; we need to deploy smarter solutions based on information technology, research, and development that considers science, the environment, and the cost of deployments. We need fresh policy frameworks and market instruments.