As all the delegates of CoP28 pack their things and head off to Dubai, will there be any real, lasting consensus on how we can manage our world where achieving rapid decarbonization is the priority?
There are so many conflicting opinions, vested interests and “evidence” but can CoP28 achieve that with the right partnerships and immediate political, corporate, and financial action, we can live in a world beyond coal, oil, and gas — one that is safer, cleaner, healthier, and more affordable for all and forge a roadmap to get there that enables all to recognize their part.
COP 28 will take place from 30 November until 12 December 2023. Pre-sessionals will take place from 24 to 29 November. There have been countless meetings leading up to the period (Pre-CoP sessions) trying to forge consensus and make clear progress on many areas of essential importance.
These CoP meetings are so often widely misunderstood, and chaotic to many present, and to the rest of the world looking in, trying to understand the process, the compromises and results that result in some of the most intense days of negotiations determining all our futures.
Let me draw from a few pointers made on the CoP process and what is needed
More than 70,000 delegates are expected to attend COP28, including the member states (or Parties) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Business leaders, young people, climate scientists, Indigenous Peoples, journalists, and various other experts and stakeholders are also among the participants.
At its heart, the COP is a political process where critical decisions are made about our Global shared future. A series of “building blocks” are agreed on topics to gather the meeting around to change our present habits and mindsets:
The WWF expects the following essentials outcomes required from COP28:
- A successful Global Stocktake which paves the way for stronger NDCs to correct course to 1.5C.
- A decision to phase out fossil fuels no later than 2050.
- Full operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, with pledged funds.
- A decision on a comprehensive framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation.
- Scaling up finance by developed countries to beyond $100 billion per annum.
- Alignment of all private and public financial flows with climate objectives.
The WWF regards that COP28 must be the moment where the world rallies to meet the climate challenge and delivers for people and nature. These are essential to achieve, can they?
The Building up to the CoP28 is a prelude to the hard work to come
Already there has been many pre-meetings. One critical one was a recent Pre-CoP meeting where delegates from more than 80 countries, including more than 60 ministers, participated over two days in some frank and lively exchanges on many of the issues needing consensus and deepening discussions on issues that will be key for the success of COP28.
Also present were the essential observers who continue to represent the often quiet or less able voices to be represented at these critical events that build commitment and momentum to any CoP meeting.
With such complexity in opinions, in positions that struggle to find consensus at any meeting. there is this critical need is somehow to enable a transparent, open and inclusive process always, so as negotiated positions. These positions are hard-fought, but as they are so intense, respect to foster a level of trust and progressive consensus-building on all positions seems, often stressful, exhausting work; adapting, accepting and recognizing compromise needs to be always needed.
As so often recognized, time will be the most valuable commodity at the actual COP28.
Organizing, forging connections from day one and recognising levels of flexibility across all the periods is determined by the work put into the first week. These the intense negotiations that need time, space so the more pressing matters have “bubbled” up to the surface for the all important political resolutions as the focus of week two.
The effectiveness of this first week is really determined by the abilities and capabilities of the Heads of Delegations to streamline and facilitate so a more effective decision-making period comes from the second week. Within this first week, the Global Stocktake needs to take center stage.
At this CoP28 the Global Stocktake (GST) is central
The Global Stocktake gives the reporting block to synthesize the key pillars of the Paris
Agreement. It has as its aims to connect mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation holistically and, like the Paris Agreement, strives to set the highest bar for ambition, recognises the different starting points of every party and finds the means, desires and ambitions to ensure equity for all.
In short, implementation of the Paris Agreement is lacking across all areas and not where it should be.
The Paris Agreement is praised for inspiring near-universal climate action and playing a central role in catalyzing cooperative action so the world can address the climate crisis.
But there is a well-known big mitigation gap, with the current trajectory of global emissions not being consistent with limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, while adaptation to climate change is not at the levels needed.
The stocktake calls for a systems transformation, which follows a whole-society and whole-economy approach that mainstreams climate resilience and development aligned with low greenhouse gas emissions. Such efforts must be maintained over decades, supporting sustainable development and the eradication of poverty.
The stocktake also points to a growing gap between developing countries’ needs and the support they provided and mobilized for them. It calls for the unlocking and redeployment of trillions of dollars towards climate action and climate-resilient development.
The Global Stocktake resets the ambitions if accepted
The global stocktake is a critical turning point when it comes to efforts to address climate change
The first-ever global stocktake is set to conclude at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) at the end of this year. The global stocktake is a process for countries and stakeholders to see where they’re collectively making progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement – and where they’re not.
We know we are not on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The window for meaningful change is closing, and the time to act is now. Governments will take a decision on the global stocktake at COP28, which can be leveraged to accelerate ambition in their next round of climate action plans due in 2025.
To understand the success of the CoP28 lies around this recognition of the Global Stocktake so as to forge a better, more cohesive and collaborative path forward.
This frame offers the essential moment to take a long, hard look at the state of our planet and chart a better course for the future. It enables countries and other stakeholders to see where they’re collectively making progress toward meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement – and where they’re not.
It’s like taking inventory. It means looking at everything related to where the world stands on climate action and support, identifying the gaps, and working together to agree on solutions pathways (to 2030 and beyond).
It is the Global Stocktake and how this is recognized as the present global position will pre-determine all that takes place within this CoP28 and how, if we can, move forward- stumbling or striding towards.
It’s not the stocktake itself that is the game-changer – it’s the global response, the response by countries as Parties to the Paris Agreement, that will make the difference in the form of higher ambition and accelerated action.
To achieve a united response and clarity of essential actions and urgency will be a real achievement of CoP28
* Main source of reference for this post
