That CoP28 was an event that catches many of the basic emotions we are going through for managing the Energy transition to rapidly move towards a safer, sustainable climate and balance with nature.
I was reflecting on the different parts and sought a way to describe these “emotions” as my reflection of the CoP28 event and all it means to me.
The Energy Transition: Navigating a Turbulent Sea
The energy transition is a complex and challenging journey, akin to navigating a turbulent sea. It’s a voyage fraught with both exhilarating opportunities and daunting obstacles, requiring us to steer clear of whirlpools of uncertainty and sail towards the horizon of sustainability.
We are about to have the CoP28 event in the UAE from 30 November 2023 to 12 December 2023, which is crucial for the energy transition. I feel this is an actual watershed event. Those representatives attending must push for substantial agreements on what needs to be done to reduce carbonization and other polluting gases, seek ways to provide clean air and a more equitable share and conserve resources, or we will forever say goodbye to achieving anything like the 1.5 C degree.
Many experts predict that our planet is presently heading for warming to 3C. If we continue this trajectory, we will enter many unknowns in how the planet reacts and responds. If we have climate extremes, the cost of human life, upheaval and damage will continue to confront us.
This is why I think the energy transition is one of the most essential areas of necessary focus, as it is one of the most complex changes from fossil-burning fuels to clean renewables powered by solar, wind and hydro.
Here, I want to provide a view summarising the Energy Ecosystem, offering some strategic steps of underlying approaches to change and where I attempt to fit into contributions supporting solutions.
The art of leapfrogging accelerates the Energy Transition
Any search for advantage or validation of making a change must consider the art of leapfrogging, especially in the Energy Transition we are all undergoing.
Leapfrogging can accelerate the rapid and transformative progress toward a more sustainable and efficient energy ecosystem that provides advantage and customer identification.
Leapfrogging done correctly offers the benefits of evaluating existing solution options, considering the added value of environmental considerations and enhancing access and resilience in a rapidly changing world needing faster adoption of cleaner energy solutions to accelerate your solutions.
Where leapfrogging really ‘scores’ is offering the ability of a developing or less developed country to essentially “skip” less efficient and higher carbon-intensive technologies during their energy development.
Leapfrogging provides a significant opportunity to develop and cut carbon emissions simultaneously, it is vastly underrated and considered. We love reinventing the wheel when there is often no need.
Leapfrogging is when developing countries industrialize with renewable energy instead of non-renewables.
Equally, companies can learn and adopt from others to reduce their own research and development costs and long lead times, across a wide range of technical improvements in renewable and storage technologies, grid balancing, use of software management, saving running costs by searching for leading or emerging best practices.
Also it can be by taking certain component parts of a solution you can accelerate and adapt to upgrade parts or finding blending solutions that fit your circumstances.
The Energy Transition is probably the most challenging undertaking we need to take in a short time frame of thirty years. to give our planet the chance to regain balance for us to live in and protect what we have.
To get there, we will need to chase a crazy pursuit of existing, competing businesses, all vested in how we do things, to gain their attention and convince them of a sense of urgency and need for a rapid change from the existing to a preferred, based more on renewables, as our principle source of energy.
Equally, I need to undertake a more focused approach. I have recently revamped my thinking towards the Energy Transition. Click on the tabs within this posting and website to understand the changes that need to be undertaken centred on innovation as central to this.
Different companies have different understandings of the changing energy ecosystem; some are narrow in their views and very focused on their business, others seek to break out and become more recognized, while others still want to be seen as leading. What and how do you pitch to each?
The report will be a central debating feature of the CoP28 meeting, to be held between November 30th to December 12th, 2023, in Dubai, the UAE. This report aims to inform and gain consensus on how to move forward.
For me, the Energy Transition is a complex, multi-headed beast that always provides more challenge rather than less.
We seem to be faced with Hydra. The Hydra was Hercules’s second labour. He attempted to cut off the heads of the beast, but every time one was cut off, two more would grow back in its place. Another challenge in killing the Hydra was that its’ breath was poisonous to all who crossed its path.
The weakness of the Hydra was that only one of its heads was immortal. In the energy transition world, I worry that this one immortal head might be fossil fuel, challenging to slay.
I don’t slay beasts; I try to shape the behaviours of clients. Renewables feature front and centre. Getting engagement is hard work; adopting different thinking and application solutions is even more challenging. The level of engagement determines the ability to allow a different way to permeate and take hold. You need many tools, ideas, visuals, promoters, discussions, etc.
Finding the time for clients to get into these types of immersion is not easy; it has to be really “mixed” up. Do I have this “cocktail” right? Frankly, no, but tackling. Individuals or teams need to find their reactive points. They need to want to open up to change. I love the word “catalyst.” if it gains the type of reaction you are looking for, you are the agent that provokes or speeds action or change.
We are in numerous world crises; the erratic weather patterns are causing droughts, floods, and high extremes of heat or sudden cold; less productive land and the oceans of the world are heating up, and that has progressively a dire consequence on our food chain.
We are still caught up in this fruitless debate of shall we / shant we switch away from fossil fuels, especially while we are (seemingly) in an energy crisis. We need to radically switch away from fossil fuel now period!!
We have worse to come. All these crises are heading us towards a world that will become increasingly difficult to live in as humans, to produce enough food or uninhabitable for many animals or species we have around us that increasingly are facing extinction. Then what about nature itself? I find it very hard that humans seem to ignore so much and just seem to want to carry on as usual. We as humans have induced climate change, we have less than twenty to thirty years to attempt to reverse it.
I was reading a (typical) consulting article from BCG entitled.”Shifting the Direct Air Capture Paradigm” giving a “classic”, somewhat optimistic view of how we can bring the costs down of Direct Air Capture.
The authors start with, “Even though it is still nascent, DAC could play a critical role in delivering on net zero.”
Sorry, convince me.
They outline that “the cost of DAC (the end-to-end cost of CO2 removal including final storage) will need to fall from $600 to $1,000 per ton of CO2 today to below $200 per ton and ideally closer to $100 per ton by 2050, and preferably earlier.”
Is this where I get my magic wand out, wave it a few times, and this scenario will happen?
Is the needed path to the Collaborative Energy Transition ApproachthroughGrand Challenges?
I have to admit that I am sceptical of individual energy organizations’ pledges to move toward a carbon-neutral future. They argue that there is a limited amount of time to make this transition, yet it is broadly recognized that individual organizations cannot achieve this alone. Are energy organizations open enough to alternative suggestions for overcoming the resource and knowledge constraints working alone can bring? Are they exploring alternative thinking enough, such as organised collective challenges? We need to bridge the gap through collaborations at multiple firm levels.
I believe there is a weakness in the energy ecosystem that deprives it of more significant collective action and innovation to achieve a more accelerated pathway to the energy transition. My argument is that while many energy companies are working on solutions within the energy transition, they often work in isolation and struggle to get out of their “self-made” islands of knowledge.
I suggest that applying ecosystem thinking and platform solutions could bring together many organizations to work in broader, more ambitious innovation ecosystems of collaborations or even work through grand challenge-designed approaches.
I often wonder about the rigor of assessments and the lack of a common approach when evaluating or assessing the contributions of new concepts or innovation solutions in any Energy Transition and the broader impacts these can have. So does this 18S framework provide this?
So what makes up the 18S framework to assess any change and innovation in the Energy transition?
I feel this framework can apply to any energy transition and provides a common point of evaluation with consistency in each part of the 18S to evaluate for efficiencies, affordability, reliability, accessibility, availability, dependability, abundance, and effectiveness.
The elements and dimensions of this 18S can determine what we need to work through and understand to gain a more “holistic” overview, especially coming from any changes and new innovative solutions.
