You do get the feeling that the world is beginning to wake up to the climate crisis.

Is it too little, too late or that we still have time left?

The energy transition will provide the pathway for transforming our energy sector from fossil-fuel-based energy to ones based on a range of zero-carbon solutions.

Although 2050 has been the target set to achieve this zero-carbon transition, the growing realization is this must be accelerated.

As President Macron suggested recently, the target of 2050 needs to be achieved now by 2030. That might be a political aspiration, but the reality and all the associated transitions have a huge cost and disruption and not really possible. He is not wrong in calling for greater ambition, but this needs to be grounded. This is not just in the science recognizing this climate imperative but in the physical transformation that needs to be undertaken on a scale and cost. Some estimate will be north of $100 trillion to achieve.

Making the energy transition unstoppable needs massive commitments of political, public, private, and societal determination.

Innovation will be at the core of all the changes, be they for 2030 or 2050, and here lies part of the problem. Much of the solutions have either not been invented, scaled, or even commercialized, so are we naive or realistic in 2030. The reality is we have a chance by 2050, but the momentum of unstoppable change has to be in place by 2030; otherwise, to coin a phrase, “we are cooked.”

Innovation is core

• We will need significant technology breakthroughs to resolve the present no cost-effective alternatives to move away from conventional energy technology. There are ideas, working prototypes or pilots, but converting the iron and steel, chemical or cement, let alone find alternative sources for ammonia, ethylene, or other essential feedstocks, are significant challenges.
• The same is to provide aviation and maritime fuel solutions that overcome existing barriers and provide a global alternative. Tailoring to local solutions might be doable, same as short flights or regional shipping, but the fuel needed to be dense and highly efficient where distance is required.
• Then we need to look beyond existing energy solutions in storage, batteries, and electrolyzers, for example, to be of higher capacity and able to replace the existing solutions commercially. Solutions that, as they scale, become lower in cost and offer solutions that stimulate deployment
• There is a recognition and a call for new business models, but what happens to the incumbent, the vested interest, and the provision of “risk capital” to make these changes?  Can new actors break into traditional areas of energy across the energy system? Can renewable technologies achieve not just profitable scale-up but replace whole energy supply systems?
• Today our financing is built on traditional risk/return models. Still, these need to be very differently modelled, those invested rewarded and reflecting the shareholder returns required, be these public or private.
• Then we have so many policy and regulatory guidances that are often caught in a real-time lag and a range of multiple stakeholder dilemmas issues to be addressed. These reviews for change go through sometimes very long due process. How can that be altered to provide greater market access and growth incentives based on exploring and establishing alternatives?

The need to maximize economic and social balancing.

The objective of wealth-creation and inclusion of all stakeholders is a difficult balancing act.

So, in conclusion, at this point.  The reality is we are only just starting on the energy transition journey. This is a runners race. The whole energy journey is a marathon, made up of short technology sprints, middle distance commitments, and cross-country involvement.

We need technology invention and acceleration; we need to deploy smarter solutions based on information technology, research, and development that considers science, the environment, and the cost of deployments. We need fresh policy frameworks and market instruments.

Do I feel we are addressing these complex issues or just still picking off the low hanging fruit? The answer is low hanging fruit, in my opinion.

Perhaps a slightly deeper dive here.

Let us go a deeper level by breaking down the main issues to be resolved if we want to build a sustainable, well-designed, and thought-through energy transition; we need to have plans and commitments to the following: open-ended questions here.

These are just a summary of areas to tackle.

Electricity

How are we going to modernize grids globally? We need to have possible parallel solutions as we navigate from grids based on fossil fuel to ones that need greater variability and adapting to alternative renewable energy sources.

We are building wind and solar solutions worldwide, but these need to combine with more imaginative energy sources to deliver “clean” energy. Hydro, hydrogen and nuclear all need to be in the supply mix.

The nuclear plant issues for a clean electricity resource are still regarded as the elephant in the room we need to address. Is this going to be designed around small modular nuclear reactors (SMR’s)?

How can we harness the power of our oceans for providing greater hydropower solutions?

Transport

The delivery of highly efficient, electric, or hydrogen cars at scale and affordable prices and complete networks to enable this alternative transport to be viable is still in the early stages of exploring. Are we going to make some leaps into the future finally?

My impression of the current car industry is this continued reluctance to make real commitments is palpable; we can feel it, but it is not in real touching distance to make the transition.

The one area of real promise is high-speed trains, but we do not have the track infrastructure and operating conditions to provide lasting security. For example, the investments made by Japan and China are pioneering, but are they the future or the interim to the future?

Finally, here, what do we need in Urban infrastructure? Again we have some significant investments in (light) rail and smart connected road systems for improving flow and density but will these scales and evolve to cope with the future population sizes we will have in our cities?

Buildings

The whole need to open up the debate to retrofitting on a global, city by city, building by building to provide a more efficient existing building. Heat pumps or water cooling solutions are available, but the investment commitment is not.

How will we tackle the appliance efficiency within existing homes or ensure all new appliances are up to the level and design to contribute. We buy appliances still very much on cost, but the investment model should shift perhaps to consumption. Can it change to this?

Then clean cooking and heating for som any needs resolving. Wood burning for heating and cooking is still a major source of carbon monoxide. We are still failing 750 million by not providing them viable alternatives or generated electricity solutions.

Solar, wind, and hydrogen are viable alternatives delivering clean electricity, but the financial investments in infrastructure or incentive still badly lag the solutions available.

Fuels

How will we make a concerted effort to reduce methane from oil and gas operations by legal and societal pressures? Yes, but when?

When are we going to bit the fossil fuel subsidies bullet? We still offer all levels of subsidies. Taking subsidies, imposing carbon emission taxes needs bold, decisive, and tough political and investment will. Will we move from talking about this and actually addressing this problem?

The value of Hydrogen is well presented today. It has a future but do we have the ability to scale solutions into the scale needed? That is a massive task in research and development. If this stays within the hands of individual companies, its commercialization and funding will be constrained by vested interests or will it?

Then finally, the talk of BioFuels, can this be scaled and factored into a creative renewable energy mix. Biofuels emit many of the gases we are trying to eradicate. Waste or residue holds a real promise but capturing of these emissions needs to be always part of the future if they are to be accelerated within the energy mix.

Industry

How are we to tackle those hard-to-abate sectors we are so highly dependent on for iron, steel, glass, chemicals, pesticides etc.?

The efficiency of production is making a transition. The application of technology is providing glimpses or showcases of the factory of the future. The combination of technology and physical assets is increasing combined; this is where the digital twin will extend and define the future of much of industry.

The future of material efficiency will increasingly go hand in hand with Green building and energy conservation, and any other ways of incorporating Renewable resource’s in the building process from start to finish.

The future business opportunities of how raw materials are consumed, incorporated, or wasted, compared to previous construction projects or physical processes, will need a “step change” in manufacturing approaches. Sustainability will become central to this change in design and production/consumption thinking.

Innovation is at the core of the Energy Transition

Today we look at solutions to resolve hydrogen, batteries, storage, and CCUS as required solutions that can be scaled and deployed to radically alter the energy design equation.

Yet, my elephant in the room, nuclear, needs to be present within the energy transition discussion. The SMR route needs to be championed.

How it is managed in France will be a place to watch as they have a rapidly ageing nuclear dependency that will need actively addressing. Will this be the catalyst to bringing the nuclear debate to the energy table?

The energy transition is only at the beginning.

To achieve an energy zero-carbon world, we have an awfully long way to go. Realistic by 2030, no, but the political sound bite of President Macron provides the wake-up call; we do need to roll up our sleeves and move beyond political rhetoric and make clean energy happen sooner rather than later.