There are so many risks in the near to mid-term to derail the Energy Transition. I feel it is really hard to stay focused and not become distracted by the anti-energy transition groups. I am a firm believer in having a navigable strategic and tactical pathway to keep you on a given track along the route you have chosen to get to a given goal. Clearly, as we progress, we learn and adjustments are made but you have to map out a fairly solid (looking) pathway to keep on track.

I wrote about the concept of exploring energy fitness landscapes. The article “My initial thinking behind Energy Fitness Landscapes“, written in 2021, uses Hydrogen as an example, with a follow-up one year later. Here I am looking at the Energy Transition from an evolving technology innovation perspective. In other words, what “forces” can be identified or promoted that can transform the existing energy system through the pursuit of new inventions, innovations, or technological advancement? I took hydrogen as an example.

A risk of the energy transition is we give higher emphasis on the depth of knowledge in one area, get distracted often and fail to pull this together, to map it into the bigger picture of the practical, broader-based one. We do need a clear pathway.

The current to near-term risks for the Energy Transition

I have been recently looking at what is regarded as the top ten risks to near-term success in the energy industry and although I agree with many of these, it tends to be a little narrow and forgets to reflect more of the individual company risks or specific industry-related ones.

• It groups them into instability issues that are with us at present. These are political change, supply chain failures, financial market instability, growing conflicts in wars, terrorism and riots.
• Then it groups the next risk factors as lack of focus on a just energy transition, people-related risks and negative public sentiment towards a part of the broader energy industry.
• Then public policies in inadequacy and timely response, delays or lagging procedures, regulations and also in unexpected surprises significantly change the dynamics within industries. The big pledges, the different investment acts that transform investment.
• Lastly, the risks centred around fossil fuels and the progress towards renewables. The current high prices and volatility for oil and gas, the pressures of withdrawing investment money into fossil fuel projects being effective, channelling the current high level of profits from oil companies into renewables and the whole question of where we are on ‘unabated coal power generation or a post I wrote on carbon capture (saga, viability and avenues)

Knowing where you are going

When you look through the lens of innovating at the Energy Transition, you often question the fitness or the reality (ability) to achieve something.

Also this “mapping back” gives our broader society and non-expert groups the opportunity to relate to the Energy transition from a specific perspective in their need to understand their part to play within this energy transition, it gives them identification. It generates their need to change or support change and brings about more extensive (behavioural) change and awareness.

Any transition needs to explain the value, need and the idea of advancement and offset the blockages if it does not fit their frame of thinking or how or why it is relevant to them due to poor understanding.

Fitness landscape thinking can help make the journey a lot easier to determine what is needed to undertake it. It is a dynamic process that stays ‘evolving.

Recently I was reading a paper written by the Dubai Future Foundation, which reimagines, inspires and designs Dubai’s future in collaboration with our public and private sector partners. Our aim is to make Dubai one of the world’s foremost future cities.

The Foundation paper “Hydrogen From Hype to Reality (opens directly to a pdf, 100 pages plus) provides a very comprehensive explainer of Hydrogen and its fit within the future of UAE. Worth reading

My suggested “handy” innovators’ strategic pathway guide for energy concepts to commercialization.

In reading the UAE report I felt there was a good “handy innovators” strategic pathway, well my version of one, to fit my focus area of looking at the Energy Transition from an evolving technology innovation perspective. In other words, what “triggers the innovation development process advancement” can be followed in the pursuit of a new invention, innovation, or technological advancement?

• The development of proof of concepts building and equally collecting future showcase use cases
• The development of prototypes demonstrating the ability to overcome challenges, technology hurdles
• Carrying out a pilot (or multiple pilots) for demonstrating the different stages of verification
• Building the assessment and feasibility study of a funded pipeline of innovation enhancements
• Informing and aligning key stakeholders and government entities to manage, influence, inform and coordinate the changes generated by the evolving technology innovation perspective.
• Drawing out insights, known risks and their management, timing and cost impediments
• The attracting, securing and building of the financial support needed to extend, speed up and scale.
• The ability to determine clear targeted measures, milestones and KPIs to facilitate and inform all the necessary stakeholders
• The identification of the roll-out targetted market potentials and conversion needs from old to new
• The development plan to fund, scale and invest on the appropriate level to support the technology change and its impact and value for those involved and society at large

I expect this could be improved or challenged even, but my point of emphasis is to have a clear manageable strategic pathway that provides a plan that maps out a pathway of change that includes an assessment of the landscape, the related risks that this transition needs to account for, and an innovation process for managing the evolving new technology innovation introduction or replacement validation. We need to have a clear understanding of all of these to provide a “reasonable” opening viewpoint of any contribution to the energy transition.